Q1 2011 Update for the Key Fundamental Statistics for the Oil and Gas Industry in Canada

Provided below are some of the Key Fundamental Statistics for the Oil and Gas Industry in Canada. These numbers are an update of my original article that can be referred to here. I recommend that you read that one to give this information some context. This article mainly focuses on producers or companies very near production. I have changed the format to group all the stats into one table and provide a ranking of all the stats based on some formulas I've developed. The stats provided are each company's price to earnings, price to sales, price to book value, price ot cash flow and operating profit margin.
The 25 TSX-listed companies included in this ranking are as follows:

Advantage Oil and Gas Ltd - AAV
Alange Energy Corp - ALE
Alberta OilSands - AOS
Bankers Petroleum Ltd - BNK
Canacol Energy Ltd - CNE
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd - CNQ
Compton Petroleum Corp - CMT
Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd - CLL
EnCana Corp - ECA
Gran Tierra Energy Inc - GTE
Ivanhoe Energy Inc - IE
Nexen Inc - NXY
Opti Canada Inc - OPC
Orleans Energy Ltd - OEX
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp - PRE
PetroBakken Energy Ltd - PBN
Petrolifera Petroleum Ltd - PDP
Petrominerales Limitada - PMG
Questerre Energy Corp - QEC
Rock Energy Inc - RE
Strategic Oil & Gas Ltd - SOG
Talisman Energy Inc - TLM
Terra Energy Corporation - TT
Transglobe Energy Corp - TGL
Vero Energy Inc - VRO

Since my January update a lot of events have taken place. GTE bought out PDP shortly after I compared the two and how undervalued PDP was. Subsequently, PDP has fallen from one of the most undervalued stocks to just above industry average while GTE has risen to just above industry average. You could gather from this information that the deal was appropriate.

CMT, OPC, ALE and QEC have been hammered since January. The three latter companies have run into financial issues as they have a very highn burn rate seen from their poor margins while CMT took a big hit to their book value thanks to a write-down of their reserves. CMT still heads the undervalued list while OPC jumps to #2 despite their bad margins as their price to book value and price to sales are extremely low.

I continue to remain bullish on CMT despite its stock performance. Although I'm thankful my other positions have made up for this dog, I cannot see how it can be lumped into the same category as OPC when it comes to distressed securities. CMT's debt load is much lower, CMT's burn rate is much, much lower (they're cash flow positive as we see in the table below) and they are operationally independant - OPC is dependant upon Nexen's operation of Long Lake for success. It might be best for CMT to sell as many natural gas assets they have, pay down as much of the debt as possible and focus on their oil assets. Their book value is already at firesale prices, so if they can get better than firesales prices for those assets, the stock price should increase.

Company	P/E	P/S	P/B	P/CF	Margin	Rank
CMT	0.0	0.4	0.1	2.0	-2.53%	557
OPC	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	-109.61%	281
TT	0.0	1.5	0.9	3.8	0.03%	144
ECA	15.1	2.4	1.3	9.1	16.90%	122
CLL	0.0	1.2	0.9	14.1	6.26%	121
NXY	23.0	2.3	1.5	5.6	9.88%	120
PBN	42.8	4.3	1.1	6.1	9.13%	103
PMG	15.2	4.0	7.0	11.2	23.76%	102
CNQ	19.1	3.9	2.3	7.8	15.58%	101
PDP	0.0	2.2	0.6	7.2	-15.09%	80
GTE	34.9	5.2	2.3	10.0	5.31%	65
Industry	26.8	4.1	3.2	12.3	1.59%	55
TLM	47.1	3.4	2.0	6.7	-11.11%	53
RE	0.0	3.3	1.8	8.5	-15.35%	35
VRO	0.0	2.5	1.2	5.4	-31.92%	33
AAV	0.0	3.8	1.0	6.8	-24.23%	33
TGL	27.3	5.9	4.2	18.5	-8.54%	21
BNK	0.0	15.6	6.0	33.1	-0.23%	16
PRE	91.8	5.1	3.8	11.6	-24.03%	-4
OEX	0.0	2.9	0.7	10.2	-49.56%	-13
CNE	0.0	16.4	5.6	0.0	-98.18%	-187
QEC	0.0	24.7	1.1	93.0	-114.82%	-201
ALE	0.0	4.9	0.8	0.0	-138.51%	-230
AOS	0.0	18.7	0.8	0.0	-150.25%	-265
IE	0.0	44.8	3.0	0.0	-159.65%	-309
SOG	0.0	18.1	3.5	0.0	-170.42%	-330

Disclaimer: The source of my information is TD Waterhouse Market Research services as of March 12, 2011. I own positions in Gran Tierra Energy and Compton Petroleum.

Click here to see some information on three Canadian oil resource stocks with tremendous potential

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January Update for the Key Fundamental Statistics for the Oil and Gas Industry in Canada

Provided below are some of the Key Fundamental Statistics for the Oil and Gas Industry in Canada. These numbers are an update of my original article that can be referred to here. I recommend that you read that one to give this information some context. This article mainly focuses on producers or companies very near production. Referring to the margin statistic, investors in ALE learned a tough lesson this week that there is a lot of risk involved with companies that have very bad current margins and are burning a lot of cash. Investors in OPC have been learning that for months now.

The two stocks that I own on this list are Compton Petroleum and Petrolifera Petroleum. Compton once again dominates this list, mostly because its stock price has been down in the dumps while other oil and gas companies increase. I'm resigned to the fact that it looks like CMT will struggle for a long time but I am confident that the stock will once again regain form and be a $10 stock. Even at this low natural gas price, Compton's profit margin is only -2.5%. Once people realize that natural gas isn't like sugar and that its a valuable energy source, demand will outstrip supply and the new, leaner Compton will be making much more profit than it ever did when the stock was at $14 It just may be a few years from now.

PDP on the other hand has woken up from its slumber this week. Makes sense as it is far undervalued compared to South American peers like GTE. GTE's market cap is almost 20 times that of PDP's and it certainly does not have 20 times more worth in reserves. GTE in 2009 is where PDP will be in terms of production relative to company size in 2012 and you'll see the stock price rise accordingly.

Refer to the following reports from Jennings Capital to compare the two. You will need to create a Jennings Capital username and password to see them (its free):

PDP
GTE

While GTE is unquestionably better off, it is not 20 times better off than PDP and while GTE is pretty close to full value, there's a ton of unrecognized value in PDP's current share price. All because of the market's doubt in Richard Gusella's ability to get a deal done to start up Petrolifera's Peruvian land holdings. Click here if you are interested in further in-depth analysis of the oil and gas sector.

The 25 TSX-listed companies included in this ranking are as follows:

Advantage Oil and Gas Ltd - AAV
Alange Energy Corp - ALE
Alberta OilSands - AOS
Bankers Petroleum Ltd - BNK
Canacol Energy Ltd - CNE
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd - CNQ
Compton Petroleum Corp - CMT
Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd - CLL
EnCana Corp - ECA
Gran Tierra Energy Inc - GTE
Ivanhoe Energy Inc - IE
Nexen Inc - NXY
Opti Canada Inc - OPC
Orleans Energy Ltd - OEX
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp - PRE
PetroBakken Energy Ltd - PBN
Petrolifera Petroleum Ltd - PDP
Petrominerales Limitada - PMG
Questerre Energy Corp - QEC
Rock Energy Inc - RE
Strategic Oil & Gas Ltd - SOG
Talisman Energy Inc - TLM
Terra Energy Corporation - TT
Transglobe Energy Corp - TGL
Vero Energy Inc - VRO


Price to Earnings

ECA.........11.0

PMG........15.7

CNQ........17.6

NXY.........20.9

Industry...25.2

TGL.........30.9

GTE.........36.6

TLM.........47.7

PBN.........47.8

The companies not listed do not have positive earnings at this time.


Price to Sales

CMT..........0.5

OPC .........0.9

CLL...........1.1

PDP..........1.6

TT.............1.7

NXY..........2.0

ECA..........2.2

RE............2.7

VRO.........2.8

TLM..........3.4

OEX..........3.5

AAV..........3.5

CNQ.........3.6

PMG.........4.2

Industry...4.4

PBN.........4.8

ALE.........5.2 GTE.........5.5

PRE.........5.8

TGL.........6.8

BNK.......16.2

CNE.......18.6

SOG.......19.3

AOS.......22.3

QEC.......35.0

IE ..........45.7

Price to Book

CMT........0.1

OPC........0.2

PDP........0.4

ALE.........0.8 CLL ........0.9

OEX........0.9

TT...........1.0

AAV........1.0

AOS........1.0

PBN........1.2

ECA........1.3

VRO........1.3

NXY.........1.5

RE...........1.5

QEC........1.6

TLM.........2.0

CNQ.........2.1

GTE.........2.5

IE ............3.1

Industry...3.2

SOG .......3.8

PRE........4.4

TGL.........4.8

BNK........6.2

CNE........7.2

PMG........7.3

Price to Cash Flow

CMT...........2.4

TT..............4.3

NXY...........5.0

PDP..........5.4

VRO..........5.9 AAV..........6.2

TLM...........6.7

PBN..........6.8

RE............7.0

CNQ..........7.2

ECA..........7.8

GTE..........10.7

PMG.........11.7

Industry...12.1

OEX.........12.4

PRE.........13.2

CLL .........13.9

TGL..........21.3

BNK.........34.3 QEC.........93.0

Profit Margin

PMG........23.76%

ECA........16.47%

CNQ........15.58%

NXY.........9.95%

PBN.........9.13%

Industry...6.16%

CLL .........6.26%

GTE.........5.31%

TT............0.03%

BNK........-0.23%

CMT........-2.53%

TGL.........-8.54%

TLM........-11.11%

PDP........-15.09%

RE..........-15.35%

PRE.......-24.03%

AAV.......-24.23%

VRO.......-31.92%

OEX.......-49.56%

QEC......-114.82%

ALE.......-138.51%

AOS......-150.25%

IE .........-159.65%

SOG......-170.42%

CNE......-209.05%

OPC......-212.85%

Disclaimer: The source of my information is TD Waterhouse Market Research services as of January 15, 2011. I own positions in Petrolifera Petroleum and Compton Petroleum.

Click here to see some information on three Canadian oil resource stocks with tremendous potential

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January Update to Key Fundamental Statistics for US Banks

Many people have been requesting an update to the numbers in my Key Fundamental Statistics for US Banks ranking. So here are the updates to the numbers for P/E, P/S, P/B, Profit Margin and Dividend yield. The numbers in the original article were after each company's Q3 results so the margins remain the same but these numbers do reflect most recent stock prices so I can understand why people would want to refer to updates. Refer to my original article to get commentary related to them.If there's another metric you'd like to see in this ranking, request it in the comments section and I'll see if I can dig it up the next time I do this. The companies involved in this ranking are:

Bank of America Corp NYSE:BAC
BB&T Corporation NYSE:BBT
Capital One Financial Corporation NYSE:COF
Citigroup Inc NYSE:C
Fifth Third Bancorp NASDAQ:FITB
JPMorgan Chase and Co NYSE:JPM
PNC Financial Services Group Inc NYSE:PNC
Regions Financial Corp NYSE:RF
Suntrust Banks Incorporated NYSE:STI
US Bancorp NYSE:USB
Wells Fargo & Company NYSE:WFC


Price to Earnings

COF….......8.9
PNC.........9.8
JPM.........12.5
USB.........17.3
WFC….....18.7
BBT..........23.5
Industry...34.0
C..............95.9
FITB.......254.5

COF, PNC and JPM would be the banks to be seriously considered as a buy when using the P/E. Every Canadian bank does better than the rest of the US banks so I would lean in that direction if I were a bank investor. BAC, STI and RF are all negative and thus aren't ranked but on a positive note Citi will start having marginal earnings and appears with a positive P/E for the first time in a long time. Notice that the industry P/E has skyrocketed to 34.0 based on huge price increases and mediocre earnings. Investors expect a lot of improvement for Q4 and some positive guidance for 2011 in the next couple of weeks. If it doesn't happen, the banks could be in for a slide.

Price to Sales

BAC.........1.3

COF……...1.4

RF…….....1.4

JPM….…..1.7

FITB……...1.8

STI…...…..1.8

WFC….....1.9

C……...….1.9

BBT….…..2.0

PNC….…..2.0

Industry…2.4

USB……..2.8

Nothing much to say here other than at least we can see where BAC, RF and STI rank because they can't go to negative sales. BAC actually does rather well using the price to sales metric.

Price to Book

BAC……...0.7

RF…...…..0.7

COF……...0.8

STI…...…..0.8

C……...….0.9

JPM……...1.0

FITB….…..1.1

BBT……....1.1

PNC……...1.1 Industry…1.3

WFC……..1.3

USB……..1.8

My personal favourite, BAC leads this list again. Nice to see that if it has a ton of toxic assets on its balance sheet, at least people are paying 70 cents on the dollar for them. COF is near the top of the list here too, impressive since it's at least earning money the "accounting" way. Note that pretty much every bank has had an increasing P/B thanks to an increase in stock price, reflecting investor expectations of positive future outcomes with the toxic assets and stress tests.

Profit Margin

PNC……...20.47%

COF……...17.68%

USB….…..16.54%

JPM……...15.86%

Industry…14.54%

WFC …....14.10%

BBT…….....8.96%

FITB……....5.12%

C……...…..2.50%

BAC……...-1.05%

STI…….....-2.83%

RF……....-18.18%

Dividend Yield %

Industry…2.69%

BBT……...2.26%

USB……...0.77%

WFC……..0.64%

PNC…......0.64%

RF…….....0.55%

JPM….…..0.46%

COF….…..0.43%

BAC……..0.27%

FITB……..0.27%

STI……....0.14%

C……..….0.00%

Every US bank pays a lower dividend than the banking industry worldwide. And while the industry dividend yield has been increasing, these banks' yield has been decreasing thanks to their price increases. It'll be interesting to see if these banks are able to follow up on the rumors to increase their dividends like banks have been doing worldwide. If you're looking for better yields, the Canadian banks have 3-5% dividends. If you're interested in a report that lists the top 100 dividend companies, see my blog on it. It's a subscription service that I find useful and it costs about the same as commission on 3 trades. If I'm going to advertise, it's not going to be on crap.

All numbers are updated as of January 12th, 2011. I do not own any of these companies, probably for a pretty good reason!

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Bodybuilding

Here's some links to articles I wrote about my workout routine for each body part. I've been working out for 15 years now with decent success so I thikn what I have to say is quite valid.

My Weight Training Routine
How to build big Biceps
How to build big Triceps
How to build big Forearms
How to build big Shoulders
How to build a big Chest
How to build a big Back
How to build big Legs
How to build big Calves

Other workout-related advice:
Are Bowflex SelectTech Adjustable Dumbbells suitable for you?
How I lost over 40 pounds in 6 months with some simple diet changes

Update to YRC Worldwide Fundamentals Compared to the Trucking Industry

People have been requesting an update to the numbers in my YRC Worldwide Fundamentals Compared to the Trucking Industry ranking. So here are the updates to the numbers for P/E, P/S, P/B, and Profit Margin. Debt to Capital % and Current Ratio have not changed during this time span so I will not update those items until after Q4 results. In this round it's a good news/bad news situation for YRC Worldwide. Their Book Value has gone further negative as they lost money in the last quarter, but their margin is improving and revenue has increased quarter over quarter. Refer to my original article to get commentary related to them. If there's another metric you'd like to see in this ranking, request it in the comments section and I'll see if I can dig it up the next time I do this. The companies involved in this ranking are:

Arkansas Best Corp NASDAQ:ABFS
Con-Way Inc NYSE:CNW
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc NASDAQ:JBHT
Landstar System Incorporated NASDAQ:LSTR
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc NASDAQ:ODFL
Werner Enterprises Inc NASDAQ:WERN


Price to Earnings

WERN...21.8
LSTR.....24.0
ODFL....26.9
JBHT.....27.6

Four companies have positive earnings. Not much has changed under this metric.





Price to Sales

YRCW....0.03
ABFS.......0.4
CNW........0.4
LSTR.......0.8
WERN.....0.9
ODFL......1.2
JBHT.......1.3

YRCW's P/S metric actually dropped from 0.04 to 0.03. If they can turn their margins around, they could have a very good P/E at this price.

Price to Book

ABFS.....1.5
WERN....2.1
CNW......2.2
ODFL.....2.6
LSTR......7.0
JBHT......8.1

This is where the bad side of YRC Worldwide gets worse. They have a negative book value that is getting worse. Their book value in the prior article was -$1.71. Now it's -$2.53. At that pace it could easily go to -$3 to -$4 next year.

Profit Margin

JBHT........5.02%
ODFL.......4.54%
WERN.....4.13%
LSTR.......3.43%
CNW......-0.01%
YRCW....-4.80%
ABFS.....-7.43%

The good news for YRCW is that they managed to improve their margin from -10.44% to -4.80%, making it a lot more plausible for them to start pulling a profit sometime next year as long as they keep their costs under control. A positive margin of 1% over the course of the year would cause their P/E metric to be dominant in the industry because their revenues are so much larger than their market cap when looking at the P/S.The stock price could skyrocket thanks to that. A lot of investors are betting on this happening. Meanwhile, there's a lot that look at that Book Value and see imminent bankruptcy protection written all over YRCW. It will be interesting to see where this company lands.


All numbers are updated as of December 16th, 2010. I do not own any of these companies.

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UNG and HNU.to - A Great Place to Throw Your Money Away

Due to the cold weather and recent natgas price surge, the UNG and HNU.to longs are coming out of the closet again.There is one very strange phenomenon I've been seeing in the markets. And that is the unstoppable and undeserving popularity of HNU on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Take a look at the chart here:

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=52431&......

Since its inception in 2008, it had 6 months of prosperity where it doubled, and since then has lost about 99.7%. Its spent about 95% of its life within 10% of its ever-decreasing lows, yet it frequently is the #1 daily volume play on the TSX with anywhere between 5M and 20M in volume a day. Now why is that? Well for one, it a 2x levered fund on the daily performance of Natural Gas.

If we go to this very useful Nat Gas streaming price link: 

http://www.futurespros.com/energies/natural-gas-streaming......

You'll notice 90% of people are bullish on nat gas at this price. Not to say this is a very scientific poll, but it does show that there are a ton of investors and speculators out there believing that nat gas is about to go up. Huge. 

So I ask myself, ok, let's say nat gas doubles to about $8. HNU.to will go up about 4x, probably less than that unless the doubling nat gas price is literally straight up, from $6.50 to $26. However, something like Compton Petroleum would go from the 40+ cent range to I would think at least $3.50 as it would be massively profitable at $8 nat gas, nearly a 10x gain. And the downside risk in Compton is much, much less than the downside risk in HNU. CMT.to is a real company with real assets. HNU.to is some BS levered trading scam. I can only imagine what would happen to the price of Compton if it had 5M-20M a day in volume like HNU.to has.   

Then you look at UNG in the States. People would rather buy that to speculate (or in their own messed up heads "invest") in natgas rather than buying a company with a ton of potential like Chesapeake or ATP.We all know China wants Chesapeake. Compton and ATP would be other things China would look at. What we know for sure though is that China does not want to buy HNU.to or UNG. What is there to buy exactly?

Its probably a lesson that many people need to learn, not just on the natgas industry but everywhere. The popularity of short funds I can understand since there's very few companies out there who's success depends on the fall of the stock market and economy. But for leveraged long funds, there is ALWAYS an industry play out there that has a better upside potential than 2x or 3x and it certainly has less downside risk than, well, -99%. 

But people like to piss away their money. All their technical indicators suggest natgas is going up tomorrow so it's time to buy HNU.to! Because CMT.to might not go up that day even if natgas increases. But if they are wrong and natgas falls then their HNU.to "trade" just turned into an "investment" where they forever average down into oblivion.

Read my blog about Compton Petroleum

Click here to see some information on three Canadian oil resource stocks with tremendous potential

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How to Trade the Forex Market

I have been successful trading currencies over the years. Actually much more successful (lucky?) than trading stocks. The advantage to trading currencies is that you aren't really "buying" or "selling" anything. You are purely going long one currency and short another. In 2008 when all my stocks were getting creamed I had my best ever currency trading month in October. So one thing is, you can use the market to diversify. The stock market is crashing? Short Aussie dollars. It's a lot easier than trying to sell all your stocks during a market panic. Especially one that occurs when the North American markets are closed.

You can't have any Enrons in the Forex market. That being said, many people lose on the market because they treat it like the stock market. They "invest" ie buy and hold a currency (or sell and hold) on way too much margin then get a margin call if the currency moves 1% or 2% against them. 2% may not sound like much but if you are leveraging 50 to 1, that's 100% of your account.

If you are interested in trying out the forex market, I highly recommend a lot of research and practice on it first. If someone is giving away a system to follow, don't follow it, it is junk. If you want to trade on someone's system, make sure it's reputable and you have a chance to make money on it. It amazes me that people are willing to risk $10K on the forex market and lose it all, but aren't willing to spend $100 or $50 or whatever upfront money it takes along with some time and thought to actually make good money on a forex system. If you wish to purchase a good trading system, I recommend this one. They use the same broker I do and have years of experience perfecting their system.

Click here for the Best Forex Trading Signals for profitable Forex trading

There are also a lot of forex robots/auto-trade systems out there. Basically some computer whizzes meet with stats whizzes and they develop a system that will consistently make you money over longer periods of time - the law of large numbers just makes it like that. All of these systems are proprietary, because, well these guys probably put years of time and effort into it so they aren't going to give it away for free.The two forex program traders I like are:

The FAP Turbo Forex Robot
The Forex Morning Trade System

The man running Forex Morning Trade System says you only need to trade 10 minutes a day, but I dunno, I kind of like trading more than that in a day. That's another point though. You can't spend TOO MUCH time on forex trading. Overtrading can be your downfall as well.

Good luck on your Forex endeavors!

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